Shin’ichiro Kako, Atsuhiko Isobe, Tomoya Kataoka, Hirofumi Hinata, A
decadal prediction of the quantity of plastic marine debris littered on
beaches of the East Asian marginal seas, Marine Pollution Bulletin,
Available online 18 February 2014, ISSN 0025-326X,
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.01.057.
(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025326X14000812)
Abstract: Large quantities of plastic litter are expected to wash ashore
along the beaches of the East Asian marginal seas in the coming decade.
Litter quantities were predicted using three techniques: a particle
tracking model (PTM) used in conjunction with two-way PTM experiments
designed to reveal litter sources, an inverse method used to compute
litter outflows at each source, and a sequential monitoring system
designed to monitor existing beach litter using webcams. Modeled
year-to-year variation in litter quantities indicated that the amount of
litter would continue to increase in the East Asian marginal seas if the
level of outflow remains constant in the coming decade. The study
confirms that about 3% of all East Asian beaches may potentially
experience a 250-fold increase in the amount of plastic beach litter
washed ashore in the next 10 years.
Keywords: Plastic beach litter; Decadal numerical prediction; Particle
tracking model; Inverse method; Web camera; East Asian marginal seas